I.IV Assumptions and Considerations

The Merced Vision 2015 General Plan relies on several assumptions regarding existing and anticipated future conditions within Merced’s growth area, otherwise known as the Specific Urban Development Plan (SUDP). (See Figure 2.4 below). Specifically, these assumptions are:

1. The 10th University of California (UC) campus will be developed in the vicinity of Lake Yosemite on the northeastern edge of the Merced growth boundary or SUDP.

2. Future population growth in the Merced growth area will approach 145,000 by the year 2015 and 240,000 by the year 2035.

3. In order to accommodate efficient levels of service delivery, regional urban development (residential, commercial, and industrial) will be focused within the Merced City’s growth area (SUDP) and not in the unincorporated areas surrounding the City.

4. The average household size in the SUDP will remain at approximately three people per dwelling unit.

5. To accommodate the future growth of the City’s SUDP, the General Plan will need to accommodate approximately 48,000 housing units (roughly double the existing number in the urban area).

6. To accommodate future growth, sufficient land area will need to be set aside to support approximately 37,700 employment opportunities within the City’s growth area.

7. Projected growth estimates will occur within the planning time-frames (20 years).

If some of these events do not occur within the next 20 years, the General Plan goals and policies will need to be re-evaluated in light of changing conditions.

Figure 2.4

Sphere of Influence and Specific Urban Development Plan (SUDP)